Will “Toy Story 5” gross over $250 million worldwide by August 31, 2026?

92%
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42%
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Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 21YES if Toy Story 5 is listed at rank 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 on Box Office Mojo's weekend chart for 2026W29 for the July 17-19, 2026 weekend, otherwise NO. If Box Office Mojo lists Toy Story 5 tied with other films and that tie occupies a rank within 1-5, the market resolves YES. If Box Office Mojo has not published the 2026W29 weekend chart by 12:00 PM on July 21, 2026 Eastern Time, the market will be resolved using Box Office Mojo's first official published weekend chart for 2026W29 once it is posted.
How markets are built and settled42%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 58% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: Toy Story 5 must be listed at rank 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 on Box Office Mojo's Weekend Chart for 2026W29 (Jul 17–19, 2026). Target window/instant: Weekend Jul 17–19, 2026 (2026W29). Observed value: the supplied Box Office Mojo 2026W29 weekend chart lists 'Toy Story 5' at Rank 4 with a weekend gross of $14,800,000. Comparison: Rank 4 is within 1–5, and no tie affecting the rank is shown. Therefore the condition is satisfied → YES.
Source: boxofficemojo.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledof course it'll be in the top 5! it's toy story, not some random rom-com. people will be crying and laughing, how could it not? 🎉

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