Will the US and Iran both publicly announce a mutual ceasefire by Aug 10, 2026?

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YES if, no later than August 21, 2026, the U.S. Senate’s official records show Todd Blanche’s nomination was confirmed on the Senate floor by roll-call vote, voice vote, or a unanimous-consent entry listing the nomination as “confirmed”. A Vice President tie-breaking vote that results in confirmation counts as confirmation. If the nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before any Senate confirmation action, this resolves NO.
Sources used to create this market
With just under two weeks left, the Senate still has time to confirm Todd Blanche. Given recent discussions, I expect a confirmation vote will happen before the deadline.

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31%
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59%
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30%
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44%
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