🌦️Science·WeatherCloses Sep 10 · Results Sep 11
Will Hurricane Karina make landfall on any landmass?
55%
+2% last 24h
211 bets · 5.4K credits1
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ScienceResults Jul 20
Will Thomas Pesquet command the next French‑backed private mission to the ISS?
30%
Stable · last 24h
📊 35 bettors💎 526 at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 20🤖 Context
YES if Thomas Pesquet is officially announced as commander of the next French‑backed private mission to the International Space Station (ISS); NO otherwise.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes30%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 70% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: The supplied evidence includes an official CNES news release (published 2026-06-02) and corroborating reporting (SpaceNews) that France and Vast announced Thomas Pesquet will fly on the PAM-6 private astronaut mission to the ISS and will serve as its Commander. CNES explicitly states (June 2, 2026) that, subject to review and approval by the ISS Multilateral Crew Operations Panel, “ESA Astronaut Thomas Pesquet will serve as Commander for this mission.” Because the French space agency and the company have publicly announced him as commander (with the usual partner approval process still pending), the correct resolution is YES.
Source: cnes.frKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 30%
- Predictions made
- 35
- Credits staked
- 526
- Comments
- 0
- Opened
- Jun 5, 2026
- Closes
- Oct 1, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 20, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- cnes.fr, spacenews.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
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