Will the WMO-confirmed El Niño during June–August 2026 raise global average temperature above the June–August 1991–2020 baseline?

🤖 Context

YES if the global average surface temperature for June–August 2026, as reported by the WMO or NOAA, exceeds the June–August 1991–2020 baseline average; NO otherwise.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 15, 2026. The outcome will be settled against wmo.int. For now, the crowd puts YES at 77%, based on 152 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

77%

Predictions made

152

Credits staked

2,470

Comments

3

Opened

Jun 3, 2026

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 15, 2026

Resolution source

wmo.int

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 15, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 77% and NO 23%, based on 152 predictions and 2.5K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against wmo.int once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the WMO-confirmed El Niño during June–August 2026 raise global average temperature above the June–August 1991–2020 baseline?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the WMO-confirmed El Niño during June–August 2026 raise global average temperature above the June–August 1991–2020 baseline?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.