Will the winner of the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October get more than 50% of the valid votes?

🤖 Context

YES if the official result for the Holborn and St Pancras UK parliamentary by-election held on 8 October 2026 shows the candidate officially declared elected received strictly more than 50.0% of the valid (non‑spoilt) votes cast. Otherwise NO. • Valid votes means votes counted as valid, excluding spoilt or otherwise invalid ballots. • If multiple declarations are issued, use the final official declaration naming the elected candidate. If there is a tie or no candidate is declared elected, use the returning officer's official statement as reported by outlets to decide. • Source: The returning officer's official declaration for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election as reported by UK national news outlets. Credible reporting of that official declaration by at least two independent UK news outlets (for example BBC plus one other) is sufficient.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Oct 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against bbc.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 49%, based on 73 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

49%

Predictions made

73

Credits staked

1,877

Comments

1

Opened

Oct 8, 2026

Closes

Oct 8, 2026

Expected resolution

Oct 9, 2026

Resolution source

bbc.com

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Oct 8, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Oct 9, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 49% and NO 51%, based on 73 predictions and 1.9K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against bbc.com once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the winner of the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October get more than 50% of the valid votes?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the winner of the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October get more than 50% of the valid votes?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.