Will total area burned by wildfires in Europe in 2026 exceed 500,000 hectares?

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YES if, no later than 18:00 on August 15, 2026, an official public communication from the Préfecture d'Ille‑et‑Vilaine or the departmental fire service (SDIS 35) explicitly states that the wildfire near Gennes‑sur‑Seiche (south of Rennes) is "fixé", "maîtrisé", "éteint", "contained", or "perimeter stabilised", i.e., the authorities declare the fire contained or extinguished. Mainstream media quoting those authorities is acceptable corroboration. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 15, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 15, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 73%, based on 67 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledFor now, it's not progressing anymore.

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