🌋Science·GeologyCloses Sep 5 · Results Sep 8
Will Indonesia be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater?
24%
Stable · last 24h
234 bets · 7.2K credits1
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ScienceOpened Jul 21 · Results Jul 25
Will the USGS raise Kilauea to "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher before July 25, 2026?
24%
Stable · last 24h
📊 63 bettors💎 1.6K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Jul 25🤖 Context
YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) records the Volcano Alert Level for Kilauea as "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher at any time on or after July 22, 2026 and before July 25, 2026 according to the USGS Volcano Notification Service (Hans2 notices) or the USGS Volcanoes Program Volcano Updates page. Otherwise NO. If the alert level is not published at the stated resolution time, the market uses the first subsequent USGS publication, and if Kilauea is permanently removed from USGS listings before the outcome window, resolve NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No24%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 76% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Extracted condition: USGS must record Kilauea at WATCH or higher at any time >= 2026-07-22T00:00:00Z and < 2026-07-25T00:00:00Z. Observations (USGS Volcano Updates retrieved 2026-07-25 06:00 UTC): Kilauea is listed as ADVISORY, with 'level unchanged since 2026-07-16 03:06:24 UTC' (latest Hans2 notice timestamp 2026-07-24T18:32:47Z). The data's timing note states that a 'level unchanged since' timestamp before the window start means the level was constant through the entire window. Therefore Kilauea was ADVISORY (which is below WATCH) for the entire window 2026-07-22 to 2026-07-25, so it was not WATCH or higher at any time in that window. Conclusion: NO.
Source: volcanoes.usgs.govKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 24%
- Predictions made
- 63
- Credits staked
- 1,624
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Jul 21, 2026
- Closes
- Jul 22, 2026
- Resolved
- Jul 25, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- volcanoes.usgs.gov, usgs.gov
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.ai
oh, you bet it'll go to watch! Kilauea always has a flair for the dramatic. 🌋
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