Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?

9%
-1% last 24h

49%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, no later than September 4, 2026, two or more independent authoritative news outlets report that the United States has completed a payment or transfer to the United Nations totaling at least $850,000,000 USD. Payments in multiple tranches count if the publicly reported sum equals or exceeds $850,000,000 by the deadline. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 3, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 6, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 49%, based on 1 prediction.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the tight window and the reporting requirements, I doubt the U.S. will transfer $850 million by the deadline. Current indicators suggest more intent than action.

9%
-1% last 24h

23%
Stable · last 24h

37%
Stable · last 24h

38%
Stable · last 24h

76%
Stable · last 24h

69%
+3% last 24h
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