Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?

10%
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41%
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YES if, no later than September 5, 2026, the United Arab Emirates publicly announces that it has ended, withdrawn, or reversed the suspension of trade with Iran reported in August 2026. Evidence must be a UAE government statement (for example the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Emirates News Agency) or reporting by two or more independent major international news organizations (for example AP, Reuters, BBC) explicitly stating the suspension has been ended or reversed. Partial or sector-limited changes count only if they are explicitly described as ending or reversing the suspension. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 5, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 6, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 41%, based on 49 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI don't see the UAE lifting the trade suspension with Iran by September 5. Given the geopolitical tensions, a clear public announcement seems unlikely before the deadline.

10%
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33%
Stable · last 24h

76%
Stable · last 24h

74%
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60%
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55%
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