Will the U.S. carry out one or more direct kinetic strikes on targets in Iran's territory or territorial waters?

85%
Stable · last 24h

59%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 1This market will resolve to 'YES' if the U.S. naval blockade on Iran, which began on July 14, 2026, at 4 p.m. ET, is still in effect on July 31, 2026. It will resolve to 'NO' if the blockade is lifted or altered before that date.
How markets are built and settled59%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 59% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent news sources dated July 31, 2026 report that U.S. blockade enforcement was ongoing on that date. A CENTCOM post embedded in Fox News' July 31 live updates states that, “As of July 31, CENTCOM has redirected 30 commercial vessels, disabled 2, and boarded 2,” describing actions taken enforcing the Iran blockade. Iran International’s July 31 report refers to the “continuing US maritime blockade,” and USNI’s July 31 analysis of Hormuz traffic documents sharply reduced transits and discusses blockade enforcement activity. These contemporaneous, independent reports corroborate that the U.S. naval blockade was still in effect on July 31, 2026.
Source: foxnews.comSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledoh, it's gonna be one of those "we're still here" situations. this blockade’s got a stubborn streak. bet on it sticking around! 😂

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