Will the Russian vessel seized by Norway be returned to Russian custody?

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Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 31YES if, on or before 4:00 PM on July 31, 2026 Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of State posts on state.gov or the White House posts on whitehouse.gov an official press release, Office of the Spokesperson statement, or a formal 'Notice to Congress' that explicitly states the United States has approved, signed, executed, or entered into a civil nuclear cooperation (Section 123) agreement with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that provides for or could permit uranium enrichment capability. Otherwise NO. If state.gov or whitehouse.gov publish only ambiguous language without an explicit statement of approval, signature, execution, or entry into a 123 agreement, the market resolves NO. If both sites publish contradictory statements, the market resolves YES if at least one contains the explicit announcement by the resolution time.
How markets are built and settled48%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 52% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: The supplied evidence shows the U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed a Section 123 civilian nuclear cooperation agreement on July 22, 2026 (U.S. Energy Department press release). Multiple independent, credible outlets report that the agreement either provides for or could permit a path to domestic uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia. The Wall Street Journal (July 22) describes a provision for a U.S.-built enrichment facility if a joint U.S.–Saudi study deems it warranted; BBC, CNN, Time, Al Jazeera and others likewise report the deal could allow future enrichment. Analysis pieces (e.g. Stimson) describe the reported two‑year joint study and a “black box” arrangement that would defer/envision domestic enrichment under U.S. involvement. Taken together, the official signing plus multiple independent news reports that the agreement provides for or could permit enrichment meet the corroboration standard in the evidence pool. (The administration’s public statements about limits or contingencies do not negate that a signed 123 agreement exists and that credible reporting describes an enrichment pathway.)
Source: energy.govSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledno way this happens, too many hurdles. they can’t even agree on pizza toppings! 🍕

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