Will the tropical cyclone named Marie make landfall on Mexican territory?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than 06:00 AM on September 6, 2026 (Central Daylight Time), an operational advisory or public statement from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (CONAGUA‑SMN), the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC/NOAA), or a Mexican federal, state, municipal government or civil‑protection authority reports that the cyclone's surface center named Marie crossed the coastline onto Mexican land (mainland or Mexican islands). Multiple independent mainstream news outlets reporting the landfall while citing those authorities also resolves YES. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 3, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 6, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 58%, based on 12 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

58%

Predictions made

12

Credits staked

161

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 1, 2026

Closes

Sep 3, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 6, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 3, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 6, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 58% and NO 42%, based on 12 predictions and 161 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the tropical cyclone named Marie make landfall on Mexican territory?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the tropical cyclone named Marie make landfall on Mexican territory?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.