Will the tracked Falcon 9 rocket debris from an early‑2025 launch hit the Moon on August 5, 2026?

Why: Multiple independent reputable sources in the supplied evidence report that the Falcon 9 upper stage from the January 2025 launch impacted the Moon on 2026-08-05. ZME Science explicitly states the collision occurred “at about 06:35 UTC on August 5, 2026.” CNN, LANL and Forbes report the impact at roughly 2:35 AM ET (which is 06:35 UTC) on 5 August 2026. BBC, Al Jazeera and The Guardian likewise report the event occurring early on 5 August 2026. Observational confirmations cited in the reports include spectral/plume detections by the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope and before/after imagery from the Korean Danuri orbiter. Those independent, dated accounts place the impact squarely inside the UTC window 2026-08-05T00:00:00Z–2026-08-05T23:59:59Z, so the answer is YES.