Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

69%
-8% last 24h

43%
Stable · last 24h
YES if, at any time on or before 06:00 on August 25, 2026 (Mexico City local time), an operational advisory, bulletin, or public advisory from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) or the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC/NOAA) explicitly designates the system identified as "Depresión Tropical Diez‑E" as a tropical storm (for example by using the term "Tropical Storm" or by issuing operational tropical-storm warnings/advisories for that system). Otherwise NO. Post-season reanalyses count only if the agency's operational advisory archive clearly shows the tropical-storm designation with a publication timestamp at or before the deadline.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 25, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 43%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledI doubt it will be officially designated a tropical storm before the deadline. The timing is tight, and without clear advisories from the NHC or SMN by 6 AM, it's unlikely to happen.

69%
-8% last 24h

73%
Stable · last 24h

40%
Stable · last 24h

76%
Stable · last 24h

75%
Stable · last 24h

29%
+3% last 24h
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