🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 25 · Results Sep 30
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet Donald Trump in person in New York?
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PoliticsOpened Sep 14 · Results Sep 21
Will the SPD be the single largest party in the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election on Sep 20?
25%
Stable · last 24h
📊 401 bettors💎 7.1K at stake
ResolvedNo
Resolved: No
Results Sep 21🤖 Context
The market asked whether, in the official final results of the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election on 20 September 2026, the SPD's share of valid party‑list (Zweitstimmen) votes was strictly greater than the share reported for every other single party. Official final figures reported by Berlin's election authorities and major German outlets show Die Linke at about 25.6–25.7% of Zweitstimmen, the SPD at about 12.1%, the CDU at about 18.8%, the AfD at about 16.3% and the Greens at about 14.3%. Because the SPD's 12.1% is clearly lower than Die Linke and several other parties, the SPD did not have a strictly greater share, so the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
No25%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 75% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Multiple independent, credible sources reporting the official election results (Amt für Statistik Berlin‑Brandenburg / Landeswahlleiter figures as carried by major outlets) show Die Linke received about 25.6–25.7% of valid Zweitstimmen while the SPD received about 12.1% (with CDU ~18.8%, AfD ~16.3%, Grüne ~14.3%). Because the SPD’s Zweitstimmen share is clearly lower than at least Die Linke (and several other parties) in the official result reports, the SPD did not have a strictly greater share than every other single party. No top‑tie is reported.
Source: tagesschau.deKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 25%
- Predictions made
- 401
- Credits staked
- 7,142
- Comments
- 1
- Opened
- Sep 14, 2026
- Closes
- Sep 20, 2026
- Resolved
- Sep 21, 2026
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution source
- tagesschau.de, sueddeutsche.de, electiomap.com
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 1 comment
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet Yes· 50 💎
With only days to go, the SPD seems to have a solid lead in polls. They're likely to retain the top spot unless there's a major shift.
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