Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?

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YES if, during the Spanish Senate plenary session held on September 9, 2026, the Senate votes to approve and formally adopt a 'planteamiento de conflicto de atribuciones' to be sent to Spain's Tribunal Constitucional specifically concerning ministers' absences related to the Ceuta crisis, as reported by at least two independent Spanish national news outlets and preferably reflected in the official plenary minutes of the Senado de España. NO if the plenary only votes to debate the matter, refers it to committee, rejects the planteamiento, or postpones the vote to another date.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 9, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 41%, based on 1 prediction.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThe Senate is likely to vote on this; the urgency around the Ceuta crisis should push them to act. Expect a formal submission, not just talk.

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63%
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46%
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38%
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83%
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70%
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