Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.6 or greater?

29%
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61%
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YES if the Soyuz 2.1b carrying Progress MS‑35 physically lifts off from Site 31/6 at Baikonur Cosmodrome on the Baikonur local date September 9, 2026. The launch is scheduled for 21:15 Baikonur time (16:15 UTC). Resolution will be based on Roscosmos launch statements or NASA ISS status updates, or on contemporaneous reporting from independent outlets.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 9, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against spaceflightnow.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 61%, based on 19 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith launch just days away, and Roscosmos usually sticking to schedule, I'd bet on that Soyuz lifting off as planned.

29%
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61%
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42%
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54%
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49%
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59%
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