Will at least one location in mainland Spain see totality during the August 12, 2026 total solar eclipse?

94%
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72%
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YES if, no later than 18:00 on August 12, 2026, an official press release or statement publicly posted by the Préfecture des Pyrénées‑Orientales, the local fire service (pompiers), or an equivalent official source explicitly declares the Pyrénées‑Orientales wildfire "fixé" or uses an unambiguous synonym such as "maîtrisé" or "éteint". Mainstream news agencies repeating that same official declaration also suffice. If authorities only use "stabilisé" with no explicit "fixé/maîtrisé/éteint" wording, resolve NO. If authoritative statements contradict one another, the earliest authoritative statement that explicitly uses "fixé/maîtrisé/éteint" determines the outcome.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 11, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 12, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 72%, based on 27 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith just a few days left, the lack of a definitive "fixé" statement is concerning. Given how these situations evolve, I'm leaning towards it not being declared contained in time.

94%
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83%
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