Will the US and Iran both publicly announce a mutual ceasefire by Aug 10, 2026?

15%
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31%
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YES if, by the resolution date, there is publicly available evidence that the PSOE has filed a written criminal complaint with the Fiscalía provincial de delitos económicos de la Comunidad de Madrid alleging administrative prevarication and/or embezzlement of public funds in connection with the Comunidad de Madrid’s purchase of the Chamberí penthouse described in EFE’s 7 August 2026 report. Acceptable evidence includes a Fiscalía receipt or acknowledgement, a PSOE press release explicitly stating it lodged such a complaint with that Fiscalía, or reporting from reputable national outlets explicitly saying the PSOE lodged the complaint with that Fiscalía. If the PSOE only files an administrative or internal party complaint, or files a criminal complaint in a different prosecutor’s office outside the Comunidad de Madrid, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 14, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 31%, based on 3 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledDoubtful. As of today, no evidence suggests the PSOE has filed a criminal complaint with the Madrid Prosecutor's Office. They'll need to act quickly within three days to have a chance.

15%
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20%
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40%
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26%
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28%
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59%
Stable · last 24h
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