Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?

37%
Stable · last 24h

45%
Stable · last 24h
YES if two or more independent authoritative news outlets (for example EFE, RTVE, El País) report that the preliminary hearing convened by Judge Juan Carlos Peinado in Madrid for the case against Begoña Gómez and Cristina Álvarez began on 8 September 2026, i.e., the hearing opened and at least one party made substantive oral submissions or the court issued an order that day. Reports referencing the Audiencia Nacional are preferred. If the hearing was cancelled or rescheduled before it began, or if there was only an administrative entry with no submissions or orders, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 45%, based on 4 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven that it's just hours before the hearing, there’s a strong chance it will proceed as scheduled. Expect credible reporting from multiple outlets confirming this by tomorrow.

37%
Stable · last 24h

59%
Stable · last 24h

49%
Stable · last 24h

80%
+17% last 24h

44%
-2% last 24h

48%
+10% last 24h
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