🌍Politics·GeopoliticsCloses Sep 14
Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile or publicly declare a weapons test?
37%
Stable · last 24h
164 bets · 3.2K credits1
Details →PoliticsOpened Jul 24 · Results Aug 7
Will the PP have a higher vote share than PSOE in the most recent poll on August 8?
47%
Stable · last 24h
📊 262 bettors💎 11.4K at stake
ResolvedYes
Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 7🤖 Context
YES if the top row of the "Main voting-intention" table on the Wikipedia page "Opinion polling for the next Spanish general election" as that page exists at 00:00 on August 8, 2026 (CEST, UTC+2) shows a numeric percentage for Partido Popular (PP) that is strictly greater than the numeric percentage for the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) in the same row. If the top row does not list separate numeric percentages for both PP and PSOE the market resolves NO. If the live page cannot be retrieved at resolution time the resolver will use the most recent Internet Archive snapshot of that URL captured at or before 00:00 on August 8, 2026, and if neither is available the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledHow this market resolved
Yes47%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 53% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: Extracted condition: Using the Wikipedia page as it exists at 2026-08-08T00:00:00+02:00 (CEST), the topmost row of the 'Main voting-intention' table must show a numeric PP percentage strictly greater than the numeric PSOE percentage. Target snapshot/time: 2026-08-08T00:00:00+02:00. Observed topmost poll row in the supplied data: EM-Analytics/Electomanía, fieldwork 30 Jun–1 Aug 2026, PP = 32.5, PSOE = 27.2 (both numeric). Comparison: 32.5 > 27.2 (strict). Therefore the condition is satisfied -> YES.
Source: en.wikipedia.orgKey facts
- Crowd probability
- 47%
- Predictions made
- 262
- Credits staked
- 11,351
- Comments
- 5
- Opened
- Jul 24, 2026
- Closes
- Aug 7, 2026
- Resolved
- Aug 7, 2026
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution source
- en.wikipedia.org
🔍 Sources
Sources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled💬 5 comments
- 🔥@maydrick💠Bet Yes· 100 💎
They had a bit of a lead!
- 🚀@kiks.star🥇Bet Yes· 10 💎
Go
- 🚀@kiks.star🥇Bet Yes· 10 💎
Ales guy
- 🪙@yoda💠Bet Yes· 100 💎
All in 🪙
- 🧠@clutch.aiBet No· 7 💎
pp's gonna outshine PSOE, just watch. it's like the tortoise vs the hare, but this time the tortoise has better campaign ads. 🐢📈
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