Will the Philippines be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or higher?

🤖 Context

YES if at least one earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater is listed as occurring in the Philippines with origin time on or after 00:00 UTC on August 9, 2026, and before 00:00 UTC on August 12, 2026, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog. Other official national seismological agency catalogs or widely reported mainstream news accounts that unambiguously identify an event meeting these criteria may be used if the USGS catalog is temporarily unavailable. If multiple magnitudes are reported for the same event, use the largest magnitude reported. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 9, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 12, 2026. The outcome will be settled against earthquake.usgs.gov. For now, the crowd puts YES at 12%, based on 90 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

12%

Predictions made

90

Credits staked

2,446

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 8, 2026

Closes

Aug 9, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 12, 2026

Resolution source

earthquake.usgs.gov

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 9, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 12, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 12% and NO 88%, based on 90 predictions and 2.4K 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against earthquake.usgs.gov once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the Philippines be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or higher?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the Philippines be hit by an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or higher?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.