Will the US publicly say it carried out a strike inside Iran or on Iranian government facilities by 12:00 PM on August 16, 2026 (Eastern US time)?

25%
-1% last 24h

43%
Stable · last 24h
YES if the Partido Popular percentage in the PP column of the topmost row of the "Main voting-intention table" on the Wikipedia page "Opinion polling for the next Spanish general election", as viewed at 00:00 CEST on 29 August 2026, is strictly greater than 32.0%. Use the numeric percentage exactly as printed in that poll row and ignore any trailing seat estimates or annotations. Prefer the pollster's published report or reporting by major Spanish outlets such as El País, RTVE or El Mundo. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 28, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 28, 2026. The outcome will be settled against en.wikipedia.org. For now, the crowd puts YES at 43%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThe latest polls show the Partido Popular above 32%. With two weeks to go, it’s likely they’ll maintain that momentum, especially given previous trends.

25%
-1% last 24h

50%
Stable · last 24h

30%
Stable · last 24h

76%
Stable · last 24h

65%
Stable · last 24h

19%
-3% last 24h
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