Will the 'nueva onda tropical' mentioned by Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional make landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than August 12, 2026, an authoritative meteorological agency or a major news organization explicitly reports that the 'nueva onda tropical' referenced by Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional in its 09 August 2026 06:00 bulletin made landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula. Landfall means the system's center or circulation crossed the coastline of any part of Campeche, Yucatán, or Quintana Roo. Preferred sources are the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (CONAGUA) or the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Reputable news organizations are acceptable as corroboration. If reports explicitly identify the landfall as a different system, or only describe coastal impacts without an explicit landfall statement for this system, it resolves NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 10, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 13, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 61%, based on 3 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

61%

Predictions made

3

Credits staked

85

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 9, 2026

Closes

Aug 10, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 13, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 10, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 13, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 61% and NO 39%, based on 3 predictions and 85 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the 'nueva onda tropical' mentioned by Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional make landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the 'nueva onda tropical' mentioned by Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional make landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.