Will a Russian state ship or military aircraft board, seize, or forcibly divert a foreign‑flagged merchant vessel in the Mediterranean?

17%
-2% last 24h

40%
Stable · last 24h
YES if two or more independent, authoritative news outlets report that the National Security Council actually met on August 25, 2026 (CEST) in a meeting convened by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez specifically to analyse the situation in Ceuta. Preferably this is confirmed by an official notice from the Presidency (Moncloa) or the National Security Council. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 24, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 40%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith only two hours left and no solid confirmation yet, it’s doubtful the National Security Council will convene tomorrow. Expecting last-minute announcements isn’t realistic here.

17%
-2% last 24h

61%
Stable · last 24h

22%
Stable · last 24h

67%
+1% last 24h

53%
-1% last 24h

50%
+4% last 24h
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