Will the US publicly say it carried out a strike inside Iran or on Iranian government facilities by 12:00 PM on August 16, 2026 (Eastern US time)?

27%
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63%
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YES if the Grupo Parlamentario de MORENA convenes and holds an official 'reunión plenaria' on August 30, 2026 (Mexico City local date), as shown by an official notice or press release from the Grupo Parlamentario de MORENA, the H. Cámara de Diputados' official event calendar or press release, the group's official video or press coverage, or mainstream news reporting, preferably via an official communiqué from the Grupo Parlamentario de MORENA. The meeting must not have been publicly and officially cancelled or rescheduled to a different date before it began. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 31, 2026. The outcome will be settled against comunicacionsocial.diputados.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 63%, based on 8 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
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27%
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44%
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43%
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74%
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17%
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44%
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