Will HLE be #1 on the LoL Esports Global Power Rankings on September 7?

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63%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Jul 31YES if Netflix reports at least 100 million global views of the Michael Jackson docuseries within 30 days of its June 2026 release. NO if fewer than 100 million views are reported in that period.
How markets are built and settled63%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 63% sure, and they got it wrong.
Why: 1) Premise — Release date: Netflix’s own page states Michael Jackson: The Verdict premiered on June 3, 2026 (https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/michael-jackson-trial-documentary-release-date-news) → Inference: the 30‑day window runs through July 3, 2026 → Conclusion: define the measurement period. 2) Premise — First‑week views: LA Times reports the docuseries “dominated the streamer’s charts with nearly 18 million views in its first week” (https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/story/2026-06-09/michael-is-streaming-the-verdict-prosecutor-details-threats) → Inference: take ~18M as a generous first‑week figure → Conclusion: first 5 days (to June 7) ≈ 18M. 3) Premise — Week ending June 14 (global Netflix Top 10): Michael Jackson: The Verdict logged 7,200,000 weekly views (https://www.netflix.com/tudum/top10/data/all-weeks-global.tsv) → Inference: add 7.2M for days June 8–14 → Conclusion: cumulative ≤ 25.2M. 4) Premise — Week ending June 21: the docuseries logged 2,500,000 weekly views (same TSV) → Inference: add 2.5M for June 15–21 → Conclusion: cumulative ≤ 27.7M. 5) Premise — Week ending June 28 Top‑10 floor: the docuseries is absent; the #10 English TV title had 1,900,000 views (same TSV) → Inference: its June 22–28 weekly views were <1.9M → Conclusion: cumulative ≤ 29.6M. 6) Premise — Week ending July 5 Top‑10 floor: the docuseries is absent; the #10 English TV title had 1,300,000 views (same TSV) → Inference: its entire June 29–July 5 week was <1.3M; only the final 3 days (July 1–3) fall in the 30‑day window, so added views in‑window <1.3M → Conclusion: 30‑day total ≤ 18.0 + 7.2 + 2.5 + 1.9 + 1.3 = 30.9M. 7) Final inference: Even under generous upper bounds, the 30‑day global views are far below 100M → Conclusion: the threshold was not reached.
Source: netflix.comSources used to resolve this market
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