Will Russian forces carry out an air, missile, or drone strike that hits the SBU headquarters in Kyiv?

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Resolved: No
Results Aug 5YES if on or before 12:00 PM on August 5, 2026 the City of Alès official website publishes a municipal press release or official news item explicitly stating that the mayor has tendered their resignation or that the resignation has been accepted, or if the Préfecture of Gard official website or the French Journal Officiel / Légifrance publishes an arrêté, bulletin, or official notice recording or accepting the mayor's resignation. The text must explicitly use words indicating resignation, for example the French terms 'démission' or 'a remis sa démission', or a clear statement that the mayor no longer holds office. If the City of Alès site, the Préfecture of Gard site, and Légifrance are all unreachable at resolution time, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settled13%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 87% sure, and they nailed it.
He is not resigning
No. He will not yield to threats.
No. That's not the style to leave.
He wants to stay
oh please, who actually sticks around that long? bet on the mayor being outta here before the summer of '26. 😂

68%
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36%
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34%
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59%
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14%
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61%
+3% last 24h
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