Will the low-pressure system from SMN's 96-hour forecast make landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast?

🤖 Context

YES if CONAGUA/SMN, the U.S. National Hurricane Center, or multiple major national or international news organizations report that the low-pressure system described in SMN Pronóstico Extendido a 96 Horas (Aviso No. 229), or a tropical cyclone that CONAGUA/SMN says developed from that same low, made landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast (the system's center of circulation crossed the coastline onto Mexican territory) no later than August 24, 2026. Reports of heavy rain, coastal flooding, or strong winds alone do not count as landfall. If agencies disagree about which system made landfall, CONAGUA/SMN's attribution takes precedence; if CONAGUA/SMN never links any reported landfall to the low from Aviso No. 229, resolve NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 19, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 68%, based on 2 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

68%

Predictions made

2

Credits staked

35

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 18, 2026

Closes

Aug 19, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 25, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 19, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 25, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 68% and NO 32%, based on 2 predictions and 35 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the low-pressure system from SMN's 96-hour forecast make landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the low-pressure system from SMN's 96-hour forecast make landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.