Will the low-pressure area off Mexico's southern Pacific coast become a tropical cyclone?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than August 22, 2026, the system that the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (CONAGUA / SMN) described in its Pronóstico Extendido a 96 Horas (Aviso No. 228, issued 16 August 2026) as a "zona de baja presión con probabilidad de desarrollo ciclónico" is explicitly designated in an official advisory as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane) by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (CONAGUA / SMN) or by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). An "invest" or informal mention does not count. If an agency designates a cyclone but does not explicitly link that designation to the same low referenced by SMN, that does not count. Otherwise NO.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Aug 18, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 23, 2026. The outcome will be settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 80%, based on 9 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

80%

Predictions made

9

Credits staked

296

Comments

1

Opened

Aug 17, 2026

Closes

Aug 18, 2026

Expected resolution

Aug 23, 2026

Resolution source

smn.conagua.gob.mx

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Aug 18, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Aug 23, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 80% and NO 20%, based on 9 predictions and 296 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against smn.conagua.gob.mx once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the low-pressure area off Mexico's southern Pacific coast become a tropical cyclone?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the low-pressure area off Mexico's southern Pacific coast become a tropical cyclone?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.