Will the Liberal Party of Canada hold a majority in the House of Commons?

🤖 Context

Resolves YES if, at 12:00 PM on September 21, 2026 (noon Eastern Daylight Time), the official Parliament of Canada party standings or the House of Commons membership roster show the Liberal Party of Canada holding more seats than all other parties and independents combined, i.e. a simple majority of the filled seats in the House. Use the Parliament of Canada official party standings (LegisInfo or the House of Commons membership pages) as the primary source, with major Canadian news outlets allowed to corroborate. An exact tie or any situation where no party has more seats than all others combined resolves NO, and vacant seats are treated as vacancies and do not count for any party.

How this market resolves

Predictions close on Sep 21, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 21, 2026. The outcome will be settled against ctvnews.ca. For now, the crowd puts YES at 71%, based on 8 predictions.

Key facts

Crowd probability

71%

Predictions made

8

Credits staked

95

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 11, 2026

Closes

Sep 21, 2026

Expected resolution

Sep 21, 2026

Resolution source

ctvnews.ca

Frequently asked questions

When does this market resolve?

Predictions close on Sep 21, 2026, and it's expected to resolve on Sep 21, 2026.

What are the current odds?

The crowd currently gives YES about 71% and NO 29%, based on 8 predictions and 95 💎 staked.

How is this market settled?

It's settled against ctvnews.ca once the outcome is known.

Is “Will the Liberal Party of Canada hold a majority in the House of Commons?” real-money betting?

No. “Will the Liberal Party of Canada hold a majority in the House of Commons?” is a free-to-play prediction market on Clutch: you predict with in-app credits, never real money, and can win points redeemable for real-world rewards.