Will the US and Iran both publicly announce a mutual ceasefire by Aug 10, 2026?

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YES if on August 5, 2026 the initiative (project of decree) to issue the first Reglamento of the Comisión Permanente is formally presented to the Senate. Acceptable evidence includes the Senate's official session agenda or minutes, a Senate press release, a commission bulletin, or reporting by at least two independent national news outlets that explicitly state the initiative was presented in the Senate on August 5, 2026. If the presentation is announced but postponed or not formally presented on August 5, 2026, the market resolves NO.
Sources used to create this market
Given that tomorrow is the deadline, and there's already a clear requirement for formal presentation, I doubt it happens. They often delay these initiatives.

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