Will Russian and Ukrainian forces start a temporary ceasefire in Oleshky that allows aid deliveries or organized evacuations?

74%
+1% last 24h

67%
Stable · last 24h
Resolved: No
Results Aug 13YES if the Regional Council of Île‑de‑France is officially recorded as a "partie civile" in the judicial investigation opened by the Parquet de Fontainebleau into the Fontainebleau forest fires no later than August 12, 2026. Evidence includes a court registry entry, an official press release from the Parquet de Fontainebleau or from the Conseil régional d'Île‑de‑France, or reporting of that filing by at least two independent reputable French news outlets. A statement of intention without a formal filing registered in the judicial file by the deadline resolves NO, and if the Region is registered by the deadline but later withdraws, the market still resolves YES.
How markets are built and settled67%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 67% sure, and they got it wrong.

74%
+1% last 24h

74%
Stable · last 24h

94%
Stable · last 24h

95%
Stable · last 24h

31%
+18% last 24h

40%
Stable · last 24h
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