ScienceOpened Jul 28 · Results Jul 28

Will the Hurricane Genevieve advisory add public recommendations before July 28, 2026?

36%

Stable · last 24h

📊 13 bettors💎 151 at stake

ResolvedNo

Resolved: No

Results Jul 28

🤖 Context

YES if the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) publishes on or before 3:15 AM on July 28, 2026 (UTC-06:00) an official Aviso for Hurricane Genevieve whose 'Recomendaciones' section contains text other than the exact phrase 'Debido a su distancia y trayectoria no se emiten recomendaciones'. Otherwise NO. If SMN replaces the advisory with a different official product for the same system, the text of that product will be used to decide.

How markets are built and settled

How this market resolved

36%

Final crowd probability

The crowd was 64% sure, and they nailed it.

Why: The SMN's official Aviso page for Huracán Genevieve (Aviso No.15, Emisión: 2026-07-27 21:00 horas) — the SMN live source provided — shows the 'Recomendaciones' entry reading: 'Debido a su distancia y trayectoria no se emiten recomendaciones.' The page also notes the next aviso was scheduled for 03:15 (hora del Centro) but contains no replacement product with different recommendation text by the deadline. Media coverage cited the same SMN message. Therefore there is no evidence in the supplied sources that SMN published an Aviso (or replacement product) before 2026-07-28 03:15 (UTC-06:00) whose 'Recomendaciones' text differed from that phrase.

Source: smn.conagua.gob.mx