Will the government table in the House of Lords an Elections Bill amendment that applies the overseas-donor cap to donations accepted on or after 1 March and makes Reform UK's £72m unlawful or repayable?

🤖 Context

YES if, no later than September 30, 2026, either the House of Lords Order Paper or Hansard records that the government has formally tabled an amendment to the Elections Bill whose text expressly says it would apply the overseas-donor cap to donations accepted on or after 1 March 2026 or would make the recent £72m in donations to Reform UK unlawful or repayable, or if two or more independent UK national news outlets report by that date that the government has formally tabled such an amendment in the House of Lords and describe it as doing one of those two things. NO if ministers only announce an intention but no formal tabling has occurred in the Lords by the deadline, if the text as tabled does not expressly state those effects, or if an amendment is tabled only in the House of Commons. An amendment that is tabled and later withdrawn still counts as having been tabled.

Key facts

Crowd probability

44%

Predictions made

401

Credits staked

6,746

Comments

1

Opened

Sep 18, 2026

Closes

Sep 29, 2026

Resolved

Oct 1, 2026

Outcome

No

Resolution source

theguardian.com