Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

86%
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YES if on August 20, 2026 at least one official U.S. retailer product page for the Google Pixel 11 (Google Store US, Amazon.com US, or BestBuy.com US) shows the phone as available to purchase, for example with an "Add to cart" or "Buy now" button or an "In stock" status that allows immediate checkout. Mainstream tech reporting that clearly states the Pixel 11 was for sale in the U.S. on that date is also acceptable evidence. If Google publicly announces a postponement or cancellation of the Pixel 11 U.S. release on or before August 20, 2026, the market resolves NO even if a third‑party page shows availability.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 20, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 20, 2026. The outcome will be settled against 9to5google.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 43%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timing and the absence of any postponement announcements, I expect the Pixel 11 will be available on August 20. Retailers usually stick to their launch schedules unless something major changes.

86%
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36%
Stable · last 24h

54%
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85%
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50%
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35%
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