Will the U.S. and Iran publicly say they've concluded a bilateral agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz?

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42%
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YES if the full, signed or final legal text of the U.S.-Canada trade agreement Trump said exists is posted on an official U.S. government website or on an official Government of Canada website no later than September 2, 2026. YES also if two or more independent authoritative news organizations report the publication and link to the full official text by that date, preferably citing the U.S. Trade Representative or Global Affairs Canada. Publication of only summaries, fact sheets, press releases, statements of intent, or 'deal in principle' announcements without the complete legal text counts as NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 3, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 3, 2026. The outcome will be settled against apnews.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 42%, based on 2 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith only about two weeks to the deadline, there's little chance the full text surfaces. Previous patterns indicate just summaries and press releases, so I’d bet no on this one.

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42%
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31%
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29%
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27%
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31%
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