Will Algeria restore the death penalty for people who deliberately set wildfires?

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Resolved: No
Results Sep 1This market requires the French Senate to officially set a date for a referendum on the right-to-die (aide à mourir) reform on or before August 31, 2026. The Constitutional Council decision 2026-7 RIP made clear that under Article 11 only the President can submit a law to referendum and that the RIP proposal on active ending of life did not meet Article 11 conditions, and media reports on 15 July 2026 recorded the Assembly's definitive adoption and a pending Constitutional Council review with no announcement that the Senate had scheduled a referendum date. Because the Senate does not set Article 11 referendum dates and no public scheduling was announced by August 31, 2026, the condition was not met, so the market resolves to no.
How markets are built and settled26%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 74% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: - Premise (Conseil constitutionnel, décision 2026-7 RIP): Under Article 11, only the President of the Republic may submit a law to a referendum; even in the RIP procedure, if conditions are met, the President submits the proposition to a referendum (https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/decision/2026/20267RIP.htm). → Institutional inference: The French Senate does not set referendum dates under Article 11 procedures. - Premise (Conseil constitutionnel, décision 2026-7 RIP): The RIP proposition concerning “la provocation active de la mort” was judged outside Article 11’s scope and not a reform; it did not satisfy conditions for a referendum (https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/decision/2026/20267RIP.htm and press release overview of RIP procedure at https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/actualites/communique/decision-n-2026-7-rip-du-17-juin-2026-communique-de-presse). → Inference: No valid referendum on the right-to-die reform could proceed via RIP, leaving no referendum for the Senate to date even if it could. - Premise (major in-window coverage): France Inter (15 July 2026) and La Croix live (15 July 2026) report the Assembly’s definitive adoption and expected Constitutional Council review, with no mention that the Senate set any referendum date (https://www.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/podcasts/l-info-de-france-inter/aide-a-mourir-ce-que-contient-le-texte-sur-la-fin-de-vie-qui-va-etre-vote-une-derniere-fois-a-l-assemblee-nationale-9683459; https://www.la-croix.com/politique/direct-fin-vie-vote-definitif-deputes-assemblee-nationale-aide-mourir-aujourdhui-20260715). → Conspicuous-absence inference: Setting a national referendum date on such a high-salience reform would certainly have been widely reported; with the window closed on 2026-08-31 and no such reports, the Senate did not set a referendum date. - Conclusion: On or before 2026-08-31, the French Senate did not officially set a date for a referendum on the right-to-die reform.
Source: conseil-constitutionnel.frSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settled👀
No
No. The law has already been voted on and a referendum is not within the powers of the Senate.

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