Will the US publicly say it carried out a strike inside Iran or on Iranian government facilities by 12:00 PM on August 16, 2026 (Eastern US time)?

27%
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58%
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YES if no later than August 31, 2026 the French National Assembly's official calendar, Journal des débats, or published vote records show a plenary 'séance extraordinaire' or a plenary sitting whose official agenda included an item described as a 'projet de loi de finances rectificative' (PLFR), or if the Assembly held a formal vote on a PLFR. Otherwise NO. Resolution is according to the Assemblée nationale's official records.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 30, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against lcp.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 58%, based on 11 predictions.
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27%
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44%
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43%
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74%
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17%
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44%
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