Will Apple’s CEO transition to John Ternus occur on schedule (September 1, 2026)?

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Resolved: No
Results Aug 1Resolves YES if the ONF (French forestry office) or the prefecture lifts all closure orders and fully reopens the Fontainebleau forest to the public before 1 August 2026. Resolves NO if any part remains closed by then.
How markets are built and settled7%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 93% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: Official sources in the supplied evidence show prefectural closure orders remained in force through 31 July 2026 and no supplied page shows a full reopening before 1 August 2026. The ONF advisory (7/20/2026) states access is forbidden 'jusqu'au vendredi 31 juillet inclus.' The Seine‑et‑Marne prefecture page (updated 2026-07-30) lists arrêtés of 24/07 and 29/07 imposing temporary closures of sectors of the forest and refers to prohibitions in force through 31/07. Local press (Le Parisien, 24/07/2026) likewise reports the prefecture extended bans at least until 31 July. Because the closure orders are shown as active through 31 July and there is no evidence in the supplied pages that all orders were lifted and the entire forest fully reopened before 1 August 2026, the correct settlement is NO.
Source: onf.frSources used to resolve this market
How markets are built and settledToo many possible fire starts, + risk of resurgence, after seeing with the drop in temperatures it could lower the risk, but unlikely

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