Will Indonesia record an earthquake of magnitude 5.6 or greater?

34%
Stable · last 24h

90%
Stable · last 24h
YES if public reporting shows the Falcon 9 for the Starlink 15‑24 mission achieved engine ignition and cleared the launch pad (a liftoff) from SLC‑4E on September 6, 2026 Pacific Daylight Time (any time between 00:00:00 and 23:59:59 PDT). If engines fire but the vehicle does not depart the pad (pad abort), or the attempt is scrubbed before ignition, that is NO. Resolution will be based on SpaceX official mission updates or the SpaceX webcast, Spaceflight Now's live-coverage report, or corroborating reports from major news agencies such as AP or Reuters.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 6, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 6, 2026. The outcome will be settled against spaceflightnow.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 90%, based on 87 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the timing, if the engines are firing, liftoff is likely imminent. SpaceX generally stays on schedule unless facing technical issues, so I'm betting on a launch today.

34%
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35%
Stable · last 24h

88%
Stable · last 24h

66%
Stable · last 24h

36%
+3% last 24h

59%
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