Will the US and Iran both publicly announce a mutual ceasefire by Aug 10, 2026?

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Resolved: No
Results Jul 23This market will resolve to 'YES' if the European Central Bank announces an increase in its key interest rates at the meeting on July 23, 2026. It will resolve to 'NO' if the ECB announces no change or a decrease in rates at that meeting.
How markets are built and settled38%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 62% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The ECB's official press release for the 23 July 2026 Governing Council meeting states that the Governing Council "decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged" and lists the deposit facility, main refinancing operations and marginal lending facility rates as remaining at 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65% respectively. Contemporary reporting in the supplied evidence (e.g. Reuters, Euronews, FXStreet) likewise reports the ECB held rates. Therefore the ECB did not announce an increase at its 23 July 2026 meeting.
Source: ecb.europa.euSources used to resolve this market
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