Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

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YES if the National Weather Service's final damage‑survey assigns an EF rating of EF‑2 or greater to the tornado the NWS identifies as occurring over Dover Speedway at about 6:18 p.m. ET on August 20, 2026, otherwise NO. Preferably this is from the NWS Mount Holly office's final damage‑survey report or the NWS's official Storm Data entry, but consistent reporting by AP, Reuters, or local Delaware outlets that quote the NWS final rating is acceptable. If the NWS final report distinguishes multiple separate tornado touchdowns in Dover, this market concerns the tornado the NWS associates with the Dover Speedway location and time above.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 24, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 26, 2026. The outcome will be settled against foxweather.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 38%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven the short time until resolution and the recent tornado's intensity, I wouldn't bet on it reaching EF‑2. Damage reports are unlikely to reflect that level.

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