Will at least one bank headquartered in Iran be newly sanctioned by the U.S.?

77%
+16% last 24h

79%
Stable · last 24h
YES if no later than December 31, 2026, two or more independent reputable news outlets report that the ANC has publicly announced a specific calendar date and a principal location (a named city or a main route/meeting point) for its 'gran movilización' for Diada 2027. A vague timetable (for example “autumn 2027” or “around the Diada”) or a general call to mobilise without naming both a concrete date and a primary location resolves NO. If local branches publish differing dates/locations but there is a single ANC central announcement naming date and location before the deadline, that central announcement counts for YES.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Dec 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Jan 1, 2027. The outcome will be settled against efe.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 79%, based on 6 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledThe ANC typically announces key details well in advance, and with the December deadline approaching, I expect they'll provide a specific date and location. So yes, it will happen.

77%
+16% last 24h

75%
Stable · last 24h

39%
Stable · last 24h

90%
Stable · last 24h

50%
Stable · last 24h

66%
Stable · last 24h
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