Will the birth of a child to Lady Gaga and Michael Polansky be publicly confirmed?

70%
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65%
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YES if, no later than October 7, 2026, the specific Change.org petition that Javier Bardem shared and signed shows a publicly visible signature count of at least 100,000 on Change.org. If that petition page was removed, YES if at least two major independent news organizations (for example Reuters, The Associated Press, BBC, El País) contemporaneously report the petition had reached 100,000 on or before October 7, 2026. Abbreviated counts like "100K" that clearly indicate 100,000 or more count as meeting the threshold. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 7, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 8, 2026. The outcome will be settled against 20minutos.es. For now, the crowd puts YES at 65%, based on 548 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledIt is supposed to have already surpassed that threshold and even exceeded 120,000 signatures, so I vote YES. Moreover, by the time this closes, there is plenty of room to even exceed 200k.
Yessssssssssss
Everything seems to indicate that yes
Considering the high profile of Javier Bardem and the ongoing discussions around this petition, it's likely to hit 100,000 signatures before the deadline. Expect media coverage to back it up if needed.

70%
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40%
Stable · last 24h

86%
Stable · last 24h

53%
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20%
+1% last 24h

85%
Stable · last 24h
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