Will a Russian state ship or military aircraft board, seize, or forcibly divert a foreign‑flagged merchant vessel in the Mediterranean?

17%
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60%
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YES if the Cámara de Diputados holds and completes an official vote on 31 August 2026 (Mexico City local date) to elect its Mesa Directiva, and the completion and result (either the names of the elected officers or an official statement that the election concluded on that date) are publicly reported on 31 August 2026 by at least two independent news outlets or appear in the Cámara de Diputados' published plenary session minutes or a Cámara de Diputados press release. Otherwise NO. If the vote was convened on 31 August 2026 but suspended, postponed, or left without a concluded result that day, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Aug 31, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Aug 31, 2026. The outcome will be settled against comunicacionsocial.diputados.gob.mx. For now, the crowd puts YES at 60%, based on 0 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledWith less than a week to go and recent discussions in the Chamber, I lean towards yes. The political climate suggests they are likely to finalize the vote on schedule.

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66%
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23%
Stable · last 24h

68%
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53%
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50%
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