Will Amazon Leo have 400 or more satellites in orbit by Aug 31, 2026?

66%
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93%
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YES if Keraunos (Observatory of Tornadoes and Severe Storms) publishes on its official channels, no later than 00:00 on September 9, 2026, an event assessment that explicitly identifies the 24 August 2026 Pomas (Aude) event as a confirmed tornado (for example by using the word "tornado" or "confirmed tornado" or by listing it as confirmed in its event database). Keraunos' own published assessment is preferred. Equivalent confirmations reported by the prefecture of Aude or by major news agencies that explicitly cite Keraunos are also acceptable. If Keraunos only calls the event "under investigation", "probable", or gives no explicit confirmation by the deadline, the market resolves NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Sep 8, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Sep 9, 2026. The outcome will be settled against tf1info.fr. For now, the crowd puts YES at 93%, based on 247 predictions.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledGiven today's date, Keraunos has just over a week to confirm this as a tornado. Given their track record, a definitive verdict seems unlikely; I'm betting NO here.

66%
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Stable · last 24h

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