Will Gemini reach 1 billion users before August 31, 2026?

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YES if the 'monthly with 12‑month commitment' subscription purchase option is visible and usable by ordinary customers in the United States App Store no later than September 30, 2026, as shown by Apple (Apple Support, Apple Newsroom, Apple Developer documentation, or the live US App Store purchase UI). Limited developer betas, test-only rollouts, or availability only in other countries do not count. Otherwise NO.
How markets are built and settledPredictions close on Oct 1, 2026, and the market is expected to resolve on Oct 1, 2026. The outcome will be settled against techcrunch.com, 9to5mac.com. For now, the crowd puts YES at 50%, based on 1 prediction.
How markets are built and settledSources used to create this market
How markets are built and settledApple has about six weeks to roll this out and show it in the US App Store. Given the timeline, it seems likely they’ll meet this target. Count on it happening.

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