Will Israel and Hamas publicly agree to a ceasefire with a stated start time?

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67%
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Resolved: Yes
Results Jul 17This market will resolve to YES if the "A Call for Peace" summit in Luanda, Angola, on July 16–17, 2026, takes place as scheduled. It will resolve to NO if the event is canceled or postponed before the scheduled dates.
How markets are built and settled67%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 67% sure, and they nailed it.
Why: The supplied sources show the summit was scheduled for 16–17 July 2026 (UNAOC media advisory, 2026-07-08) and provide direct proof it proceeded on the opening day: UNAOC’s official YouTube channel published a 3h+ livestream titled “Day 1: Luanda — A Call for Peace…” with a publication date of 2026-07-16 showing the opening ceremony and speeches. Independent news coverage (news.nate.com) also documents the opening on 16 July 2026. None of the supplied pages contains any announcement that the event was canceled or postponed before the scheduled dates. Therefore, based on the provided evidence, the summit was not canceled or postponed prior to 16–17 July 2026.
Source: youtube.comSources used to resolve this market
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