Will the U.S. carry out one or more direct kinetic strikes on targets in Iran's territory or territorial waters?

83%
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47%
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Resolved: Yes
Results Aug 17This market will resolve to 'YES' if a major policy announcement is made during the 46th SADC Summit in Durban on August 17, 2026. A major policy announcement is defined as a new initiative, agreement, or policy change that is publicly disclosed during the summit proceedings. The market will resolve to 'NO' if no such announcement is made during the summit.
How markets are built and settled47%
Final crowd probability
The crowd was 53% sure, and they got it wrong.
franchement, je parie que ça va être le grand flou ! les sommets, c’est souvent plus de blabla que de concrete. donc non, pas d'annonce marquante 😏

83%
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28%
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77%
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